{"storms":[{"key":"ian_2022","label":"Ian 2022"},{"key":"michael_2018","label":"Michael 2018"}],"parts":[{"key":"owner","label":"The owner of the wrecked house"},{"key":"neighbors","label":"The neighbors"},{"key":"load","label":"Pipes, lots and the tax roll"},{"key":"next","label":"The next storm"}],"families":[{"key":"A","part":"owner","label":"Who is hit","question":"Does the storm hit the middle-class house harder?"},{"key":"B","part":"owner","label":"The damaged owner","question":"After a severe loss, does the middle-class owner fare worse?"},{"key":"C","part":"owner","label":"The affordable stock","question":"What becomes of a wrecked mobile-home lot?"},{"key":"H","part":"owner","label":"Where the owner goes","question":"Do owners who leave a wrecked house leave the county?"},{"key":"D","part":"neighbors","label":"The house next door","question":"Does a wrecked house nearby push the neighbors to sell?"},{"key":"T","part":"neighbors","label":"The tract","question":"Does a hard-hit neighborhood change hands faster?"},{"key":"E","part":"load","label":"The load on the lot","question":"Do rebuilt lots put more building on the same pipes and roads?"},{"key":"M","part":"load","label":"Lot assembly","question":"Are wrecked lots merged into bigger ones?"},{"key":"G","part":"load","label":"The tax base","question":"Does the storm raise the taxable base that pays for the pipes?"},{"key":"S","part":"load","label":"Wastewater releases","question":"Do sewer spills rise where the damage was?"},{"key":"R","part":"next","label":"The next storm","question":"Is a repaired or rebuilt lot safer the next time?"}],"verdicts":["supported","weak","opposite","not supported","too few cases","placebo passes","placebo fails"],"counts":{"supported":45,"weak":5,"opposite":13,"not supported":69,"too few cases":5,"placebo passes":2},"n_tests":139,"n_corrected":132,"tests":[{"id":"A1","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A top-5% house is severely damaged less often than a middle-half house of the same census tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"severe loss on owner class, tract effects; top 5% against the middle half","estimate":-1.12,"lo":-2.8635,"hi":0.6234,"p":0.20798,"q":0.30847,"n":295623,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"A5","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A lower-quarter house is severely damaged more often than a middle-half house of the same census tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"the model of A1; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":0.0093,"lo":-0.8571,"hi":0.8757,"p":0.98313,"q":0.98313,"n":295623,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"A2","fam":"A","hypothesis":"The same as A1, with the age and the size of the house held","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"A1 plus year-built bands and log building area","estimate":1.7569,"lo":0.128,"hi":3.3857,"p":0.03451,"q":0.07231,"n":295622,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"A6","fam":"A","hypothesis":"The same as A5, with the age and the size of the house held","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"A2’s model; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":-1.6069,"lo":-2.5485,"hi":-0.6653,"p":0.00082,"q":0.00247,"n":295622,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"opposite","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"A3","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A mobile home is severely damaged more often than a site-built house of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"severe loss on mobile home, tract effects","estimate":7.144,"lo":4.317,"hi":9.9711,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":497590,"clusters":370,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"A4","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A company’s house is severely damaged more often than a middle-half resident’s house of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"severe loss on company owner against the middle half, tract effects","estimate":0.2157,"lo":-0.4271,"hi":0.8585,"p":0.51065,"q":0.62412,"n":174008,"clusters":365,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"A1","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A top-5% house is severely damaged less often than a middle-half house of the same census tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"severe loss on owner class, tract effects; top 5% against the middle 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supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"A6","fam":"A","hypothesis":"The same as A5, with the age and the size of the house held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"A2’s model; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":0.6798,"lo":-0.6573,"hi":2.0168,"p":0.319,"q":0.42967,"n":49426,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"A3","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A mobile home is severely damaged more often than a site-built house of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"severe loss on mobile home, tract effects","estimate":6.5149,"lo":4.3825,"hi":8.6473,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":101719,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"A4","fam":"A","hypothesis":"A company’s house is severely damaged more often than a middle-half resident’s house of the same tract","storm":"Michael 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quarter","estimate":3.9535,"lo":2.1049,"hi":5.802,"p":3e-05,"q":0.00012,"n":7661,"clusters":240,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 1,392 cases","verdict":"opposite","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":true,"expect":-1},{"id":"B2","fam":"B","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a top-5% resident owner’s house is cleared less often than a middle-half owner’s","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"cleared on owner class, county effects; top 5% against the middle half","estimate":5.0495,"lo":1.5099,"hi":8.5891,"p":0.00517,"q":0.01393,"n":7661,"clusters":240,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 1,452 cases","verdict":"opposite","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"B2L","fam":"B","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a lower-quarter resident owner’s house is cleared more often than a middle-half owner’s","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"cleared on owner class, county effects; lower quarter against the middle 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lower quarter","estimate":5.445,"lo":0.8897,"hi":10.0003,"p":0.01914,"q":0.04433,"n":6633,"clusters":223,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 1,149 cases","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":true,"expect":1},{"id":"B6","fam":"B","hypothesis":"A wrecked middle-half house sells at a discount against an undamaged one (price over the pre-storm just value)","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"log price over just value on severe loss by class, sale-year and tract effects; the middle half","estimate":-8.6621,"lo":-12.5208,"hi":-4.6332,"p":4e-05,"q":0.00016,"n":41383,"clusters":358,"unit":"%","note":"the contrast rests on 594 cases","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"B7","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The discount of a wrecked top-5% house is smaller than the middle half’s","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"the same model; severe loss by top 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half","estimate":-5.0833,"lo":-12.8511,"hi":2.6845,"p":0.19962,"q":0.30287,"n":1659,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 673 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"B3adj","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The same as B3, with the redevelopment index, land value, year built, tenure and the tract held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on owner class plus the house and the land, tract effects","estimate":-9.0419,"lo":-27.0499,"hi":8.9661,"p":0.32505,"q":0.4334,"n":1659,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 78 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":true,"expect":-1},{"id":"B3Ladj","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The same as B3L, with the redevelopment index, land value, year built, tenure and the tract held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on owner class plus the house and the land, tract effects; lower quarter","estimate":5.2193,"lo":-3.1715,"hi":13.6101,"p":0.22278,"q":0.32315,"n":1659,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 673 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":true,"expect":1},{"id":"B4","fam":"B","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a top-5% resident owner’s house is less often no longer a primary home on the 2025 roll than a middle-half owner’s","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"not_resident_25 on owner class, county effects; top 5% against the middle half","estimate":0.6367,"lo":-9.5797,"hi":10.853,"p":0.90279,"q":0.91667,"n":1629,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 76 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"B4L","fam":"B","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a lower-quarter resident owner’s house is more often no longer a primary home on the 2025 roll than a middle-half owner’s","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"not_resident_25 on owner class, county effects; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":3.4182,"lo":-5.0381,"hi":11.8745,"p":0.4282,"q":0.54349,"n":1629,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 663 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"B4adj","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The same as B4, with the redevelopment index, land value, year built, tenure and the tract held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"not_resident_25 on owner class plus the house and the land, tract effects","estimate":-2.3942,"lo":-10.064,"hi":5.2756,"p":0.54064,"q":0.64109,"n":1629,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 76 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":true,"expect":-1},{"id":"B4Ladj","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The same as B4L, with the redevelopment index, land value, year built, tenure and the tract held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"not_resident_25 on owner class plus the house and the land, tract effects; lower quarter","estimate":6.201,"lo":-0.0931,"hi":12.4951,"p":0.05348,"q":0.10232,"n":1629,"clusters":62,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 663 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":true,"expect":1},{"id":"B5","fam":"B","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a top-5% resident owner’s house is less often still without a repair on record at t+2 (houses kept) than a middle-half owner’s","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"no_repair_t2 on owner class, county effects; top 5% against the middle half","estimate":-5.0992,"lo":-24.0537,"hi":13.8552,"p":0.59799,"q":null,"n":940,"clusters":58,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 33 cases, too few to read","verdict":"too few cases","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"B5L","fam":"B","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a lower-quarter resident owner’s house is more often still without a repair on record at t+2 (houses kept) than a middle-half owner’s","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"no_repair_t2 on owner class, county effects; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":-0.4997,"lo":-4.0859,"hi":3.0865,"p":0.78476,"q":0.83538,"n":940,"clusters":58,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 384 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"B5adj","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The same as B5, with the redevelopment index, land value, year built, tenure and the tract held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"no_repair_t2 on owner class plus the house and the land, tract effects","estimate":5.8873,"lo":-11.39,"hi":23.1647,"p":0.50421,"q":null,"n":940,"clusters":58,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 33 cases, too few to read","verdict":"too few cases","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":true,"expect":-1},{"id":"B5Ladj","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The same as B5L, with the redevelopment index, land value, year built, tenure and the tract held","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"no_repair_t2 on owner class plus the house and the land, tract effects; lower quarter","estimate":-2.6577,"lo":-6.4881,"hi":1.1727,"p":0.17386,"q":0.28687,"n":940,"clusters":58,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 384 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":true,"adjusted":true,"expect":1},{"id":"B6","fam":"B","hypothesis":"A wrecked middle-half house sells at a discount against an undamaged one (price over the pre-storm just value)","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"log price over just value on severe loss by class, sale-year and tract effects; the middle half","estimate":-59.7721,"lo":-65.3421,"hi":-53.307,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":6804,"clusters":71,"unit":"%","note":"the contrast rests on 222 cases","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"B7","fam":"B","hypothesis":"The discount of a wrecked top-5% house is smaller than the middle half’s","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"the same model; severe loss by top 5%","estimate":72.1777,"lo":26.2237,"hi":134.862,"p":0.0006,"q":null,"n":6804,"clusters":71,"unit":"%","note":"the contrast rests on 28 cases, too few to read","verdict":"too few cases","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"B8","fam":"B","hypothesis":"A wrecked middle-half house that is sold belongs to a company in 2025 more often than an undamaged one that is sold","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"company owner in 2025 on severe loss, middle-half houses sold by t+4, tract effects","estimate":4.2507,"lo":1.0452,"hi":7.4561,"p":0.00935,"q":0.02419,"n":5148,"clusters":70,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"B9","fam":"B","hypothesis":"A wrecked middle-half house that is sold is a primary home in 2025 less often than an undamaged one that is sold","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"homestead in 2025 on severe loss, middle-half houses sold by t+4, tract effects","estimate":-20.4655,"lo":-26.6341,"hi":-14.2969,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":5148,"clusters":70,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"C1","fam":"C","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a mobile-home lot carries a site-built house on the latest roll more often than after no damage","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"use on the latest roll is single-family house on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":2.1077,"lo":1.2093,"hi":3.0062,"p":0.0,"q":2e-05,"n":30155,"clusters":157,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"C2","fam":"C","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a mobile-home lot is vacant on the latest roll more often than after no damage","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"use on the latest roll is vacant residential on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":40.6467,"lo":31.8901,"hi":49.4034,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":30155,"clusters":157,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"C3","fam":"C","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a mobile-home lot is a mobile-home lot on the latest roll less often than after no damage","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"use on the latest roll is mobile home on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-44.7283,"lo":-53.3426,"hi":-36.114,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":30155,"clusters":157,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"C1","fam":"C","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a mobile-home lot carries a site-built house on the latest roll more often than after no damage","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"use on the latest roll is single-family house on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":6.8814,"lo":4.1539,"hi":9.6089,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":12074,"clusters":66,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"C2","fam":"C","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a mobile-home lot is vacant on the latest roll more often than after no damage","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"use on the latest roll is vacant residential on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":35.4967,"lo":29.6811,"hi":41.3123,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":12074,"clusters":66,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"C3","fam":"C","hypothesis":"After a severe loss, a mobile-home lot is a mobile-home lot on the latest roll less often than after no damage","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"use on the latest roll is mobile home on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-43.3957,"lo":-49.2406,"hi":-37.5508,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":12074,"clusters":66,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H1","fam":"H","hypothesis":"A resident owner whose house took a severe loss is no longer its owner on the 2025 roll more often than the owner of an undamaged house of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"owner name on the house changed between t and 2025, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":8.8162,"lo":6.4385,"hi":11.1939,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":255425,"clusters":363,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 9.20 (p < .001, n 198,988)","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"H2","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Having left, the owner of a wrecked house holds a primary home elsewhere in the same county less often than an owner who left an undamaged house","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"the pre-storm name holds a homestead in the county in 2025, owners who left, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":2.7642,"lo":1.6212,"hi":3.9072,"p":0.0,"q":1e-05,"n":58578,"clusters":359,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 6.96 (p < .001, n 35,919)","verdict":"opposite","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H2M","fam":"H","hypothesis":"The same as H2, among middle-half owners","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"H2’s model on middle-half owners who left","estimate":1.2568,"lo":-0.3286,"hi":2.8422,"p":0.12024,"q":0.20612,"n":29678,"clusters":333,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 8.97 (p < .001, n 18,235)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H3","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Having left a wrecked house, a top-5% owner holds a primary home elsewhere in the county more often than a middle-half owner","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"homestead under the name in the county in 2025, owners who left a severe loss, on owner class, county effects","estimate":3.8976,"lo":0.5332,"hi":7.2619,"p":0.02317,"q":0.05097,"n":2474,"clusters":183,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 415 cases; with the two-word name key −1.01 (p = .767, n 1,594)","verdict":"weak","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"H3L","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Having left a wrecked house, a lower-quarter owner holds a primary home elsewhere in the county less often than a middle-half owner","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"H3’s model; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":1.5606,"lo":-1.2718,"hi":4.3931,"p":0.28018,"q":0.38525,"n":2474,"clusters":183,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 528 cases; with the two-word name key −2.35 (p = .243, n 1,594)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H4","fam":"H","hypothesis":"The same as H2 with the wider net: a primary home anywhere in the 27 counties on file","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"the pre-storm name holds a homestead in any county on file in 2025, owners who left, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":2.497,"lo":1.2864,"hi":3.7076,"p":5e-05,"q":0.00021,"n":58578,"clusters":359,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 5.94 (p < .001, n 35,919)","verdict":"opposite","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H5","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Of the leavers found in the county, the one who left a wrecked house moved farther from the coast than the one who left an undamaged house","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"distance to the coast of the new home minus the old one (km), on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":0.1345,"lo":-1.8848,"hi":2.1538,"p":0.89613,"q":0.91667,"n":1044,"clusters":266,"unit":"km","note":"the contrast rests on 125 cases; with the two-word name key 1.15 (p = .100, n 1,892)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"H6","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Of the leavers found in the county, the one who left a wrecked house bought a cheaper home, against the pre-storm value of the old one, than the one who left an undamaged house","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"log of the new home’s 2025 just value over the old home’s pre-storm just value, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-7.6341,"lo":-25.6811,"hi":14.7953,"p":0.47401,"q":0.58475,"n":1429,"clusters":297,"unit":"%","note":"the contrast rests on 143 cases; with the two-word name key −12.39 (p = .096, n 2,704)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H1","fam":"H","hypothesis":"A resident owner whose house took a severe loss is no longer its owner on the 2025 roll more often than the owner of an undamaged house of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"owner name on the house changed between t and 2025, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":12.7344,"lo":9.8057,"hi":15.6631,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":31193,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 13.80 (p < .001, n 23,623)","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"H2","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Having left, the owner of a wrecked house holds a primary home elsewhere in the same county less often than an owner who left an undamaged house","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"the pre-storm name holds a homestead in the county in 2025, owners who left, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":1.6812,"lo":0.1956,"hi":3.1668,"p":0.02655,"q":0.05746,"n":15355,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 6.47 (p < .001, n 9,279)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H2M","fam":"H","hypothesis":"The same as H2, among middle-half owners","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"H2’s model on middle-half owners who left","estimate":3.1497,"lo":0.7288,"hi":5.5706,"p":0.01077,"q":0.02682,"n":7886,"clusters":70,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 11.18 (p < .001, n 4,878)","verdict":"opposite","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H3","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Having left a wrecked house, a top-5% owner holds a primary home elsewhere in the county more often than a middle-half owner","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"homestead under the name in the county in 2025, owners who left a severe loss, on owner class, county effects","estimate":-4.8548,"lo":-7.0331,"hi":-2.6766,"p":1e-05,"q":null,"n":885,"clusters":54,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 42 cases, too few to read; with the two-word name key −4.09 (p = .477, n 593)","verdict":"too few cases","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"H3L","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Having left a wrecked house, a lower-quarter owner holds a primary home elsewhere in the county less often than a middle-half owner","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"H3’s model; lower quarter against the middle half","estimate":-2.527,"lo":-5.5438,"hi":0.4898,"p":0.10064,"q":0.17951,"n":885,"clusters":54,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 359 cases; with the two-word name key −8.27 (p = .014, n 593)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H4","fam":"H","hypothesis":"The same as H2 with the wider net: a primary home anywhere in the 27 counties on file","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"the pre-storm name holds a homestead in any county on file in 2025, owners who left, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":2.0038,"lo":0.2755,"hi":3.7322,"p":0.02306,"q":0.05097,"n":15355,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"with the two-word name key 4.91 (p = .021, n 9,279)","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"H6","fam":"H","hypothesis":"Of the leavers found in the county, the one who left a wrecked house bought a cheaper home, against the pre-storm value of the old one, than the one who left an undamaged house","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"log of the new home’s 2025 just value over the old home’s pre-storm just value, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-10.5315,"lo":-30.1094,"hi":14.5305,"p":0.37712,"q":null,"n":307,"clusters":58,"unit":"%","note":"the contrast rests on 31 cases, too few to read; with the two-word name key −9.61 (p = .114, n 959)","verdict":"too few cases","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"D1","fam":"D","hypothesis":"One more severe loss within 100 m goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":0.9646,"lo":0.693,"hi":1.2363,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":287260,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D2","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number of nearby severe losses held, each one that is replaced or cleared goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":0.4725,"lo":-0.7543,"hi":1.6994,"p":0.45029,"q":0.56074,"n":287260,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D3","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number held, each nearby severe loss that is sold goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":0.9079,"lo":0.0147,"hi":1.8011,"p":0.04634,"q":0.09267,"n":287260,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"weak","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D4","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number held, each nearby severe loss owned by a company in 2025 goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":0.2963,"lo":-0.92,"hi":1.5127,"p":0.63297,"q":0.72028,"n":287260,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D5","fam":"D","hypothesis":"The same, for the neighbor’s house no longer being a primary home on the 2025 roll","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"not_resident_25 on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":1.2808,"lo":0.2364,"hi":2.3253,"p":0.01623,"q":0.03826,"n":287255,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D6","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number held, each nearby severe loss that is replaced goes with faster growth of the neighbor’s just value to 2025","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"g_jv on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":1.491,"lo":0.046,"hi":2.957,"p":0.04309,"q":0.08752,"n":287255,"clusters":364,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"weak","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D7","fam":"D","hypothesis":"The same for the taxable value of neighbors who stayed (the tax pressure on a resident who does not sell)","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"g_tv on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":0.0573,"lo":-1.0256,"hi":1.152,"p":0.91788,"q":0.92489,"n":198185,"clusters":362,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D8","fam":"D","hypothesis":"The link of D2 is stronger for a middle-half neighbor than for the other classes","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":-1.298,"lo":-3.566,"hi":0.97,"p":0.26197,"q":0.37446,"n":287260,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D9","fam":"D","hypothesis":"Placebo: the exits that came after the storm go with a purchase of the neighbor’s house in the four years before it","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"bought_before on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":-0.5138,"lo":-1.4964,"hi":0.4688,"p":0.30543,"q":null,"n":287260,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"placebo passes","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":0},{"id":"D1","fam":"D","hypothesis":"One more severe loss within 100 m goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":0.8621,"lo":0.1344,"hi":1.5898,"p":0.02023,"q":0.04604,"n":47577,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D2","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number of nearby severe losses held, each one that is replaced or cleared goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":-0.2129,"lo":-1.4502,"hi":1.0244,"p":0.73592,"q":0.79624,"n":47577,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D3","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number held, each nearby severe loss that is sold goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":2.3446,"lo":1.1128,"hi":3.5765,"p":0.00019,"q":0.00065,"n":47577,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D4","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number held, each nearby severe loss owned by a company in 2025 goes with more sales by the resident neighbors","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":1.3879,"lo":-1.2114,"hi":3.9871,"p":0.29532,"q":0.40187,"n":47577,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D5","fam":"D","hypothesis":"The same, for the neighbor’s house no longer being a primary home on the 2025 roll","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"not_resident_25 on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":1.3231,"lo":-1.0539,"hi":3.7,"p":0.27528,"q":0.38249,"n":47569,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D6","fam":"D","hypothesis":"With the number held, each nearby severe loss that is replaced goes with faster growth of the neighbor’s just value to 2025","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"g_jv on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":-0.7311,"lo":-2.5881,"hi":1.1613,"p":0.44629,"q":0.56074,"n":47569,"clusters":72,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D7","fam":"D","hypothesis":"The same for the taxable value of neighbors who stayed (the tax pressure on a resident who does not sell)","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"g_tv on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":1.289,"lo":-0.9759,"hi":3.6057,"p":0.26699,"q":0.37492,"n":27105,"clusters":72,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D8","fam":"D","hypothesis":"The link of D2 is stronger for a middle-half neighbor than for the other classes","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sold on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":-0.1885,"lo":-2.172,"hi":1.795,"p":0.85225,"q":0.89283,"n":47577,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"D9","fam":"D","hypothesis":"Placebo: the exits that came after the storm go with a purchase of the neighbor’s house in the four years before it","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"bought_before on counts within 100 m, the focal house’s own damage, value, age, size, tenure and class, tract effects","estimate":-0.3327,"lo":-1.3437,"hi":0.6784,"p":0.51897,"q":null,"n":47577,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"placebo passes","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":0},{"id":"T1","fam":"T","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, the share of the other houses with a resident owner falls faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"tract change a year after minus before on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted by houses; 3 years after, 4 before","estimate":0.144,"lo":-0.0312,"hi":0.3192,"p":0.1072,"q":0.18868,"n":356,"clusters":356,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"T2","fam":"T","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, the share of the other houses owned by a company rises faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"tract change a year after minus before on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted by houses; 3 years after, 4 before","estimate":-0.1181,"lo":-0.3012,"hi":0.065,"p":0.20606,"q":0.30847,"n":356,"clusters":356,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"T3","fam":"T","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, the just value of undamaged houses grows faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"tract change a year after minus before on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted by houses; 3 years after, 4 before","estimate":0.5443,"lo":-0.0155,"hi":1.104,"p":0.0567,"q":0.10692,"n":356,"clusters":356,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"T1","fam":"T","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, the share of the other houses with a resident owner falls faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"tract change a year after minus before on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted by houses; 7 years after, 4 before","estimate":0.1227,"lo":-0.4171,"hi":0.6625,"p":0.65584,"q":0.72862,"n":68,"clusters":68,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"T2","fam":"T","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, the share of the other houses owned by a company rises faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"tract change a year after minus before on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted by houses; 7 years after, 4 before","estimate":-0.0957,"lo":-0.437,"hi":0.2456,"p":0.58263,"q":0.6806,"n":68,"clusters":68,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"T3","fam":"T","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, the just value of undamaged houses grows faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"tract change a year after minus before on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted by houses; 7 years after, 4 before","estimate":-0.737,"lo":-2.299,"hi":0.825,"p":0.35509,"q":0.46408,"n":68,"clusters":68,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E1","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A replaced house is larger than the house it replaced","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"mean log of building area on the latest roll over the pre-storm area, houses replaced by t+4, tract-clustered","estimate":83.7291,"lo":67.5278,"hi":101.4972,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":895,"clusters":159,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E2","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A house replaced after a sale is larger than one replaced by the same owner","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"the same log ratio on sold by t+4, county effects","estimate":8.0075,"lo":-3.5581,"hi":20.96,"p":0.18252,"q":0.29027,"n":895,"clusters":159,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E3","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A lot that took a severe loss gains residential units more often than an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"more residential units on the latest roll than before the storm, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":0.285,"lo":0.1325,"hi":0.4376,"p":0.00025,"q":0.00083,"n":417814,"clusters":367,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E4","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A single-family lot that took a severe loss is in a denser or non-residential use on the latest roll more often than an undamaged one","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"use on the latest roll is multi-family, condominium, hotel, commercial or other, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":1.2555,"lo":0.6226,"hi":1.8884,"p":0.0001,"q":0.00036,"n":401531,"clusters":364,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E5","fam":"E","hypothesis":"The lots that took a severe loss carry less building on the latest roll than before the storm","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"sum of building area on the latest roll over the pre-storm sum, severe losses, 4 rolls on; tract bootstrap","estimate":-4.17,"lo":-7.2852,"hi":-1.4055,"p":0.00597,"q":0.01577,"n":14522,"clusters":291,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"E8","fam":"E","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, total building area grows faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"yearly log change of the tract’s building area after minus before, on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted; 4 years after, 4 before","estimate":-0.3748,"lo":-0.5833,"hi":-0.1663,"p":0.00043,"q":0.00134,"n":356,"clusters":356,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"opposite","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E7","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A house replaced on a septic lot grows less than one replaced on central sewer","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"log of building area after over before, houses replaced by t+4, on septic against sewer, county effects","estimate":-18.3824,"lo":-33.2966,"hi":-0.1335,"p":0.0485,"q":0.09555,"n":858,"clusters":144,"unit":"%","note":"septic 151 houses, sewer 707","verdict":"weak","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"E1","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A replaced house is larger than the house it replaced","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"mean log of building area on the latest roll over the pre-storm area, houses replaced by t+4, tract-clustered","estimate":21.527,"lo":12.1863,"hi":31.6455,"p":0.0,"q":1e-05,"n":547,"clusters":55,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E2","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A house replaced after a sale is larger than one replaced by the same owner","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"the same log ratio on sold by t+4, county effects","estimate":6.2929,"lo":-3.4756,"hi":17.05,"p":0.21468,"q":0.31487,"n":547,"clusters":55,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E3","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A lot that took a severe loss gains residential units more often than an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"more residential units on the latest roll than before the storm, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":0.9939,"lo":0.4885,"hi":1.4993,"p":0.00012,"q":0.0004,"n":56899,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E4","fam":"E","hypothesis":"A single-family lot that took a severe loss is in a denser or non-residential use on the latest roll more often than an undamaged one","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"use on the latest roll is multi-family, condominium, hotel, commercial or other, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":1.7339,"lo":1.1819,"hi":2.2859,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":57719,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E5","fam":"E","hypothesis":"The lots that took a severe loss carry less building on the latest roll than before the storm","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"sum of building area on the latest roll over the pre-storm sum, severe losses, 8 rolls on; tract bootstrap","estimate":-18.2261,"lo":-23.68,"hi":-13.1425,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":4208,"clusters":70,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"E8","fam":"E","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, total building area grows faster after the storm than before it","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"yearly log change of the tract’s building area after minus before, on the share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted; 8 years after, 4 before","estimate":-0.3017,"lo":-0.4481,"hi":-0.1554,"p":5e-05,"q":0.00021,"n":68,"clusters":68,"unit":"points a year","note":"tracts of 100 houses or more","verdict":"opposite","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"E6","fam":"E","hypothesis":"Two decades on, the lots Charley wrecked carry more building, against their 2004 area, than the lots it spared","storm":"Charley 2004","test":"building area on the latest roll over the 2004 area, severe losses against the undamaged houses of the same county (Charlotte, DeSoto, Lee); bootstrap over map sections","estimate":8.6671,"lo":4.4919,"hi":14.2215,"p":0.00039,"q":0.00126,"n":5354,"clusters":7741,"unit":"%","note":"with 156 township clusters the interval is 3.2 to 17.0; the roll’s area field changed between 2004 and today, so each county is compared with itself","verdict":"supported","round":1,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"M1","fam":"M","hypothesis":"A lot that took a severe loss has no parcel number of its own on the latest roll more often than an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"parcel number not on the latest roll, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":0.5979,"lo":0.2998,"hi":0.896,"p":8e-05,"q":0.00031,"n":422209,"clusters":368,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"M2","fam":"M","hypothesis":"A lot that took a severe loss is at least 20% larger on the latest roll more often than an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"lot area on the latest roll at least 1.2 times the pre-storm area, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":0.0253,"lo":-0.1197,"hi":0.1703,"p":0.73217,"q":0.79624,"n":421087,"clusters":368,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"M3","fam":"M","hypothesis":"Among the wrecked lots, one that a company holds in 2025 has grown more often than one a person holds","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"lot at least 20% larger on company owner in 2025, severe losses, tract effects","estimate":-0.0981,"lo":-0.3077,"hi":0.1115,"p":0.359,"q":0.46459,"n":14510,"clusters":289,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 2,048 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"M1","fam":"M","hypothesis":"A lot that took a severe loss has no parcel number of its own on the latest roll more often than an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"parcel number not on the latest roll, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":2.4458,"lo":1.7787,"hi":3.1129,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":59748,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"M2","fam":"M","hypothesis":"A lot that took a severe loss is at least 20% larger on the latest roll more often than an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"lot area on the latest roll at least 1.2 times the pre-storm area, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":1.2319,"lo":0.4562,"hi":2.0075,"p":0.00185,"q":0.0052,"n":58293,"clusters":72,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"M3","fam":"M","hypothesis":"Among the wrecked lots, one that a company holds in 2025 has grown more often than one a person holds","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"lot at least 20% larger on company owner in 2025, severe losses, tract effects","estimate":0.4516,"lo":-0.4638,"hi":1.367,"p":0.33355,"q":0.44029,"n":4048,"clusters":70,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 561 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"G1","fam":"G","hypothesis":"The taxable value of a lot that took a severe loss grows more from t to 2025 than that of an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"log taxable value in 2025 over t, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-9.5517,"lo":-13.0664,"hi":-5.8948,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":412828,"clusters":367,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"opposite","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"G2","fam":"G","hypothesis":"The just value of a lot that took a severe loss grows less from t to 2025 than that of an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"log just value in 2025 over t, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-12.7489,"lo":-15.8971,"hi":-9.4829,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":412828,"clusters":367,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"G3","fam":"G","hypothesis":"A resident owner who stayed through a severe loss sees taxable value grow more than a resident who stayed in an undamaged house of the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"log taxable value in 2025 over t, primary homes at t and in 2025 with no sale, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-11.3775,"lo":-13.7568,"hi":-8.9325,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":187447,"clusters":362,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"opposite","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"G1","fam":"G","hypothesis":"The taxable value of a lot that took a severe loss grows more from t to 2025 than that of an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"log taxable value in 2025 over t, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-14.6766,"lo":-20.8097,"hi":-8.0685,"p":3e-05,"q":0.00013,"n":55599,"clusters":72,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"opposite","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"G2","fam":"G","hypothesis":"The just value of a lot that took a severe loss grows less from t to 2025 than that of an undamaged lot of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"log just value in 2025 over t, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":-23.8754,"lo":-29.1981,"hi":-18.1525,"p":0.0,"q":0.0,"n":55599,"clusters":72,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"G3","fam":"G","hypothesis":"A resident owner who stayed through a severe loss sees taxable value grow more than a resident who stayed in an undamaged house of the same tract","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"log taxable value in 2025 over t, primary homes at t and in 2025 with no sale, on severe loss, tract effects","estimate":1.8207,"lo":-5.1063,"hi":9.2534,"p":0.6157,"q":0.71292,"n":19412,"clusters":71,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"S1","fam":"S","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, wastewater release notices rise more from the years before the storm to the years after it","storm":"Ian 2022","test":"notices a year per 1,000 homes after minus before, on the tract’s share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted; 5.1 years before, 3.6 after, storm weeks left out","estimate":0.003,"lo":-0.0091,"hi":0.0152,"p":0.62592,"q":0.71845,"n":367,"clusters":367,"unit":"notices a year per 1,000 homes","note":"376 notices before, 369 after; a notice is placed where the release happened, often a lift station or a plant, not a house","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"S1","fam":"S","hypothesis":"In tracts with more severe losses, wastewater release notices rise more from the years before the storm to the years after it","storm":"Michael 2018","test":"notices a year per 1,000 homes after minus before, on the tract’s share of severe losses (per 10 points), county effects, weighted; 1.2 years before, 7.5 after, storm weeks left out","estimate":0.1412,"lo":-0.4738,"hi":0.7561,"p":0.65279,"q":0.72862,"n":68,"clusters":68,"unit":"notices a year per 1,000 homes","note":"24 notices before, 877 after; a notice is placed where the release happened, often a lift station or a plant, not a house","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"R1","fam":"R","hypothesis":"A lot Charley wrecked took a severe loss in Ian less often than a lot Charley spared, in the same tract","storm":"Charley 2004, then Ian 2022","test":"severe loss in Ian on severe loss in Charley, site-built houses of Charlotte, DeSoto and Lee, 2022 tract effects","estimate":0.5423,"lo":-0.2469,"hi":1.3315,"p":0.17804,"q":0.28966,"n":192374,"clusters":255,"unit":"points","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"R2","fam":"R","hypothesis":"A lot Charley wrecked that carries a house built after 2004 took a severe loss in Ian less often than a spared lot of the same tract","storm":"Charley 2004, then Ian 2022","test":"severe loss in Ian on Charley loss by rebuilt or kept, tract effects; rebuilt","estimate":-1.5379,"lo":-3.4492,"hi":0.3734,"p":0.11477,"q":0.19934,"n":192374,"clusters":255,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 1,371 cases","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"R3","fam":"R","hypothesis":"A lot Charley wrecked whose pre-2004 house was kept took a severe loss in Ian more often than a spared lot of the same tract","storm":"Charley 2004, then Ian 2022","test":"R2’s model; house kept","estimate":1.2107,"lo":0.4627,"hi":1.9587,"p":0.00151,"q":0.00444,"n":192374,"clusters":255,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 3,535 cases","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"R4","fam":"R","hypothesis":"The house on a lot Charley wrecked was worth more in 2022 than the house on a spared lot of the same tract","storm":"Charley 2004, then Ian 2022","test":"log just value in 2022 on severe loss in Charley, tract effects","estimate":-9.0418,"lo":-22.9723,"hi":7.408,"p":0.26383,"q":0.37446,"n":192374,"clusters":255,"unit":"%","note":"","verdict":"not supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":1},{"id":"R5","fam":"R","hypothesis":"A house replaced after Ian took a severe loss in the 2024 season less often than a house Ian wrecked that was repaired, in the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022, then the 2024 season","test":"severe loss in 2024 on replaced by t+2 against repaired by t+2, Ian severe losses, tract effects","estimate":-3.8818,"lo":-7.0332,"hi":-0.7305,"p":0.01576,"q":0.03783,"n":7114,"clusters":238,"unit":"points","note":"the contrast rests on 117 cases","verdict":"supported","round":2,"added_later":false,"adjusted":false,"expect":-1},{"id":"R6","fam":"R","hypothesis":"A house Ian wrecked and repaired took a severe loss in the 2024 season more often than a house Ian left undamaged, in the same tract","storm":"Ian 2022, then the 2024 season","test":"severe loss in 2024 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severe","tracts":14,"houses":37422,"n_pre":4.0,"n_post":83.0,"rate_pre":0.0871,"rate_post":0.295,"storm":"michael_2018"},{"band":"1 to 5%","tracts":26,"houses":37540,"n_pre":7.0,"n_post":329.0,"rate_pre":0.152,"rate_post":1.1657,"storm":"michael_2018"},{"band":"over 5%","tracts":28,"houses":45876,"n_pre":13.0,"n_post":465.0,"rate_pre":0.231,"rate_post":1.3482,"storm":"michael_2018"}],"notes":{"frame":"Residential parcels of the primary damage counties of Ian 2022 (Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Lee, Okeechobee) and Michael 2018 (Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Jackson, Liberty, Washington) that the rolls follow for four years after the storm. Ian is read three to four rolls on, Michael seven to eight.","models":"Linear models with census-tract effects unless the test says otherwise; standard errors clustered by tract; ratios of sums with a cluster bootstrap. The q value is the Benjamini-Hochberg correction over every test on the page except the placebo and the contrasts that rest on fewer than 50 cases.","names":"Owner names are matched in memory to follow an owner across rolls; no name is stored or shown."}}