{"raw":[{"key":"low","label":"Poorest third","n":4521,"replaced":0.0482194204821942,"cleared":0.0984295509842955,"exit":0.1466489714664897,"median_income":54487.0},{"key":"middle","label":"Middle third","n":4387,"replaced":0.0528835194894005,"cleared":0.1579667198541144,"exit":0.2108502393435149,"median_income":66898.0},{"key":"high","label":"Richest third","n":4578,"replaced":0.0838794233289646,"cleared":0.1437308868501529,"exit":0.2276103101791175,"median_income":103413.0}],"land":{"id":"land","title":"Land value of the lot, in the same owner model","found":"Carries the gradient, per log unit of land value","tests":[{"key":"land replaced4","short":"Replaced","test":"Log land value, per log unit; replaced by t+4; owner model","unit":"points","est":1.91257486599903,"lo":1.2558930676648097,"hi":2.5692566643332504,"p":1.1399790539572488e-08,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":"1.9","ci":"[1.3, 2.6]","p_txt":"< .001","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Results text"]},{"key":"land cleared4","short":"Cleared","test":"Log land value, per log unit; cleared by t+4; owner model","unit":"points","est":5.193561158917119,"lo":2.6830695730578915,"hi":7.704052744776347,"p":5.0191018507723634e-05,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":"5.2","ci":"[2.7, 7.7]","p_txt":"< .001","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Results text"]}]},"sections":[{"label":"Money and the path of a severely damaged house","tab":"Owner money","hypotheses":[{"k":1,"id":"h1","title":"Owners with more money rebuild regardless of cost","found":"Found: no pooled estimate distinguishable from zero","tests":[{"key":"1 replaced","short":"Replaced","test":"Owner ZIP income, per SD; replaced by t+4; owner model","unit":"points","est":-0.05290177080278,"lo":-0.5428453475320412,"hi":0.4370418059264812,"p":0.8323945695450538,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":"−.05","ci":"[−.54, .44]","p_txt":".83","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"1 cleared","short":"Cleared","test":"Same; cleared by t+4","unit":"points","est":0.06738838232967,"lo":-1.0359559292384608,"hi":1.1707326938978009,"p":0.9047129633215676,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":".07","ci":"[−1.04, 1.17]","p_txt":".90","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"1 exit","short":"Exit","test":"Same; left the stock by t+4","unit":"points","est":0.01448661152689,"lo":-1.2095639603518376,"hi":1.2385371834056176,"p":0.981493485160996,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":".01","ci":"[−1.21, 1.24]","p_txt":".98","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"1 Ian income alone","short":"Ian, income alone, exit","test":"Owner ZIP income alone, county-storm fixed effects; Ian; left the stock by t+4","unit":"points","est":1.15858464046529,"lo":-0.9866645750318545,"hi":3.3038338559624343,"p":0.2898106434773992,"n":13486,"clusters":291,"txt":"1.16","ci":"[−.99, 3.30]","p_txt":".29","src":"a23 wealth_specs","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"1 stepwise range","short":"18 estimates, controls one at a time","test":"Controls added one at a time: six models, three outcomes, pooled; range of the 18 estimates and the smallest p","unit":"range","est":null,"lo":-0.60764356837711,"hi":0.79162197191315,"p":0.1394641222977778,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":"−.61 to .79","ci":"","p_txt":".14","src":"a23 wealth_specs","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":2,"id":"h2","title":"Money flattens the redevelopment threshold","found":"Found: both interactions near zero","tests":[{"key":"2 inc x index exit","short":"Income × index, exit","test":"Owner ZIP income × index; left the stock by t+4; owner model; per SD and log unit","unit":"points","est":-0.11288495462589,"lo":-0.3605577350397124,"hi":0.1347878257879323,"p":0.3716783452867616,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":"−.11","ci":"[−.36, .13]","p_txt":".37","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"2 inc x land exit","short":"Income × land value, exit","test":"Owner ZIP income × log land value; left the stock by t+4; per SD and log unit","unit":"points","est":-0.15013462577511,"lo":-1.0415588438849956,"hi":0.7412895923347758,"p":0.7413203922600164,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":"−.15","ci":"[−1.04, .74]","p_txt":".74","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":3,"id":"h3","title":"Owner income works in one direction across locations","found":"Found: no consistent direction","tests":[{"key":"3 ian_2022 exit4 low","short":"Ian, cheapest lots, exit","test":"Ian, cheapest third of land values: highest minus lowest third of owner ZIP income; left the stock by t+4","unit":"points","est":9.2497916914653,"lo":5.9378075856014,"hi":12.5617757973292,"p":2.4144361155397154e-09,"n":2943,"clusters":null,"txt":"9.25","ci":"[5.94, 12.56]","p_txt":"< .001","src":"a23 significance_tests, T6","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"3 ian_2022 exit4 high","short":"Ian, most valuable lots, exit","test":"Ian, most valuable third of land values: same contrast","unit":"points","est":-4.31294034162907,"lo":-7.91037251056475,"hi":-0.7155081726933801,"p":0.0152779539563295,"n":2904,"clusters":null,"txt":"−4.31","ci":"[−7.91, −.72]","p_txt":".02","src":"a23 significance_tests, T6","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"3 michael_2018 replaced4 low","short":"Michael, cheapest lots, replaced","test":"Michael, cheapest third of land values: same contrast; replaced by t+4","unit":"points","est":-6.383050732730899,"lo":-9.53215061585078,"hi":-3.23395084961101,"p":0.0007583272021691,"n":897,"clusters":null,"txt":"−6.38","ci":"[−9.53, −3.23]","p_txt":"< .001","src":"a23 significance_tests, T6","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"3 ian_2022 Wald","short":"Ian, income × land, joint test","test":"Income × land terciles, joint Wald test of the four interactions; Ian; left the stock by t+4","unit":"chi2","est":12.65993994068911,"lo":null,"hi":null,"p":0.0130626462745309,"n":13486,"clusters":null,"txt":"χ²(4) = 12.66","ci":"","p_txt":".01","src":"a23 significance_tests, T6","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"3 michael_2018 Wald","short":"Michael, income × land, joint test","test":"Same; Michael","unit":"chi2","est":13.108073059609824,"lo":null,"hi":null,"p":0.0107596261453979,"n":4092,"clusters":null,"txt":"χ²(4) = 13.11","ci":"","p_txt":".01","src":"a23 significance_tests, T6","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":4,"id":"h4","title":"Owners of 3 or more parcels rebuild more","found":"Found: no difference","tests":[{"key":"4 replaced","short":"Replaced","test":"3 or more parcels under the owner’s name; replaced by t+4; owner model","unit":"points","est":0.27255313125005,"lo":-0.6442805035884028,"hi":1.1893867660885027,"p":0.5601208458463593,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":".27","ci":"[−.64, 1.19]","p_txt":".56","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"4 exit","short":"Exit","test":"Same; left the stock by t+4","unit":"points","est":0.59442136162857,"lo":-0.9481377921066098,"hi":2.1369805153637498,"p":0.4500802997572778,"n":17870,"clusters":387,"txt":".59","ci":"[−.95, 2.14]","p_txt":".45","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":5,"id":"h5","title":"The price paid for a damaged house tells who rebuilds","found":"Found: nothing once land value and the index are held","tests":[{"key":"5 replaced","short":"Replaced","test":"Log price paid over pre-storm land value, lots sold by t+3 before exit; replaced by t+4; per log unit","unit":"points","est":0.5272351505359499,"lo":-1.906718657301274,"hi":2.961188958373174,"p":0.6711510270639625,"n":3326,"clusters":292,"txt":".53","ci":"[−1.91, 2.96]","p_txt":".67","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"5 exit","short":"Exit","test":"Same; left the stock by t+4","unit":"points","est":-1.02247831862451,"lo":-5.562564485434788,"hi":3.517607848185767,"p":0.658913323196542,"n":3326,"clusters":292,"txt":"−1.02","ci":"[−5.56, 3.52]","p_txt":".66","src":"a23 wealth_models","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":6,"id":"h6","title":"Tract income moves resident owners from restoring to replacing","found":"Found: none among owner-occupants","tests":[{"key":"6 owner-occupants","short":"Owner-occupants, replaced","test":"Tract median household income, per SD; owner-occupants; replaced by t+4","unit":"points","est":0.03447085022605,"lo":-0.8860754327680556,"hi":0.9550171332201556,"p":0.9414923391416494,"n":9402,"clusters":320,"txt":".03","ci":"[−.89, .96]","p_txt":".94","src":"a23 income_reconcile","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"6 pooled","short":"All owners, three storms, replaced","test":"Same, all owners, threshold terms held; three storms pooled; replaced by t+4","unit":"points","est":0.0021943362444078,"lo":-0.8733647915379215,"hi":0.877753464026737,"p":0.996080667733956,"n":16188,"clusters":370,"txt":".00","ci":"[−.87, .88]","p_txt":"1.00","src":"a18 financing_models","tables":["Table S8","Table S7"]},{"key":"6 Ian","short":"All owners, Ian, replaced","test":"Same; Ian","unit":"points","est":-0.20088610954865,"lo":-1.0046469742767945,"hi":0.6028747551794944,"p":0.6242272665590667,"n":13499,"clusters":284,"txt":"−.20","ci":"[−1.00, .60]","p_txt":".62","src":"a18 financing_models","tables":["Table S8","Table S7"]}]}]},{"label":"Buyers after the storm","tab":"Buyers after the storm","hypotheses":[{"k":7,"id":"h7","title":"Mortgage borrowers in heavily damaged tracts became higher-income","found":"Found: borrower income did not rise","tests":[{"key":"7 ian_2022 post_x_heavy","short":"Ian, heavily damaged tracts","test":"Log borrower income, HMDA purchase loans: post × heavy tract; Ian; log points","unit":"log points","est":-0.0199254395319041,"lo":-0.0582525144543429,"hi":0.0184016353905347,"p":0.3082206534416819,"n":330744,"clusters":755,"txt":"−.020","ci":"[−.058, .018]","p_txt":".31","src":"a24 did","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"7 ian_2022 post_x_share","short":"Ian, tract severe share","test":"Same, post × tract severe share; Ian","unit":"log points","est":-0.0459593462407072,"lo":-0.1527448381220476,"hi":0.0608261456406331,"p":0.3989134968144369,"n":330744,"clusters":755,"txt":"−.046","ci":"[−.153, .061]","p_txt":".40","src":"a24 did","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"7 michael_2018 post_x_heavy","short":"Michael, heavily damaged tracts","test":"Post × heavy tract; Michael","unit":"log points","est":0.0063643275248734,"lo":-0.0767599008179591,"hi":0.0894885558677058,"p":0.8807129096743935,"n":40684,"clusters":95,"txt":".006","ci":"[−.077, .089]","p_txt":".88","src":"a24 did","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"7 michael_2018 post_x_share","short":"Michael, tract severe share","test":"Post × tract severe share; Michael","unit":"log points","est":0.1532998147630004,"lo":-0.2951059014975683,"hi":0.6017055310235692,"p":0.5028068866092359,"n":40684,"clusters":95,"txt":".153","ci":"[−.295, .602]","p_txt":".50","src":"a24 did","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":8,"id":"h8","title":"Cash buying rose because of the damage","found":"Found: no significant rise within price bands","tests":[{"key":"8 under 250k","short":"Sales under $250,000","test":"Cash-purchase proxy, heavy minus light tracts, after minus before Ian; sales under $250,000","unit":"points","est":-7.69701112042126,"lo":-16.447418628566478,"hi":1.49591474239018,"p":0.078,"n":9305,"clusters":null,"txt":"−7.70","ci":"[−16.45, 1.50]","p_txt":".08","src":"a24 cash_by_price","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"8 250k to 500k","short":"$250,000 to $500,000","test":"Same; $250,000 to $500,000","unit":"points","est":8.415294549966,"lo":-0.06943709071419,"hi":17.17491577064242,"p":0.052,"n":11428,"clusters":null,"txt":"8.42","ci":"[−.07, 17.17]","p_txt":".05","src":"a24 cash_by_price","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"8 500k to 1M","short":"$500,000 to $1 million","test":"Same; $500,000 to $1 million","unit":"points","est":-2.3110830991875098,"lo":-9.92900392456313,"hi":5.92761024629203,"p":0.572,"n":7248,"clusters":null,"txt":"−2.31","ci":"[−9.93, 5.93]","p_txt":".57","src":"a24 cash_by_price","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"8 1M or more","short":"$1 million or more","test":"Same; $1 million or more","unit":"points","est":-1.97784728822864,"lo":-13.03262300379798,"hi":7.6553033482422705,"p":0.712,"n":4087,"clusters":null,"txt":"−1.98","ci":"[−13.03, 7.66]","p_txt":".71","src":"a24 cash_by_price","tables":["Table S8"]}]}]},{"label":"Path dependence and the flood rule","tab":"Path dependence and the flood rule","hypotheses":[{"k":9,"id":"h9","title":"Recovery is path dependent at the parcel","found":"Found: opposite sign inside the tract","tests":[{"key":"9 all","short":"Kept after Charley, kept after Ian","test":"Kept after Ian: kept after Charley against a new severe loss (raw 98.7% against 87.0%); same tract","unit":"points","est":-2.88060542797061,"lo":-4.992690978347445,"hi":-0.7685198775937745,"p":0.0075135732945386,"n":34495,"clusters":357,"txt":"−2.88","ci":"[−4.99, −.77]","p_txt":".008","src":"a18 state_dependence_models and state_dependence_rates","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"9 no mobile homes","short":"Same, without mobile homes","test":"Same, without mobile homes","unit":"points","est":-3.49846613161346,"lo":-5.12364207887584,"hi":-1.873290184351079,"p":2.45136421372064e-05,"n":31016,"clusters":349,"txt":"−3.50","ci":"[−5.12, −1.87]","p_txt":"< .001","src":"a18 state_dependence_models","tables":["Table S8"]}]},{"k":10,"id":"h10","title":"The flood program’s one-half line changes exit","found":"Found: no visible trace (imprecise)","tests":[{"key":"10 exit","short":"Exit","test":"Jump in exit by t+4 at a deleted share of one half, inside minus outside the SFHA; own-lot structures, Ian","unit":"points","est":-2.2945933265888603,"lo":-12.198512219682945,"hi":7.609325566505225,"p":0.6497544296833972,"n":3542,"clusters":214,"txt":"−2.29","ci":"[−12.20, 7.61]","p_txt":".65","src":"a18 sfha_threshold","tables":["Table S8"]},{"key":"10 replaced","short":"Replaced","test":"Same; replaced by t+4","unit":"points","est":-1.25545639659983,"lo":-6.076960939204949,"hi":3.566048146005289,"p":0.6098005127118,"n":3542,"clusters":214,"txt":"−1.26","ci":"[−6.08, 3.57]","p_txt":".61","src":"a18 sfha_threshold","tables":["Table S8"]}]}]}],"contrast":{"storms":[{"key":"ian_2022","label":"Ian 2022"},{"key":"michael_2018","label":"Michael 2018"}],"outcomes":[{"key":"exit4","label":"Exit"},{"key":"replaced4","label":"Replaced"},{"key":"cleared4","label":"Cleared"}],"terciles":[{"key":"low","label":"Cheapest third"},{"key":"middle","label":"Middle third"},{"key":"high","label":"Most valuable 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4.33]","table":null},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"replaced4","tercile":"middle","est":1.31658171034303,"lo":-0.43890833449712,"hi":3.07207175518319,"p":0.1448505835907333,"n":2839,"txt":"1.32","ci":"[−.44, 3.07]","table":null},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"replaced4","tercile":"high","est":-1.2205382938821001,"lo":-3.40608425280459,"hi":0.96500766504038,"p":0.2544428196700661,"n":2904,"txt":"−1.22","ci":"[−3.41, .97]","table":null},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"cleared4","tercile":"low","est":6.95940959409594,"lo":4.10998780164112,"hi":9.80883138655075,"p":9.211400866973733e-08,"n":2943,"txt":"6.96","ci":"[4.11, 9.81]","table":null},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"cleared4","tercile":"middle","est":4.44335718101438,"lo":2.12104064015272,"hi":6.76567372187603,"p":0.0002224131075068,"n":2839,"txt":"4.44","ci":"[2.12, 6.77]","table":null},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"cleared4","tercile":"high","est":-3.09240204774697,"lo":-6.24168573390186,"hi":0.056881638407919995,"p":0.0455483048620711,"n":2904,"txt":"−3.09","ci":"[−6.24, .06]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"exit4","tercile":"low","est":-6.663959115984699,"lo":-13.50610327612718,"hi":0.17818504415777,"p":0.0586274922933113,"n":897,"txt":"−6.66","ci":"[−13.51, .18]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"exit4","tercile":"middle","est":-5.62843511982814,"lo":-12.29392554020745,"hi":1.03705530055117,"p":0.0993700013039761,"n":856,"txt":"−5.63","ci":"[−12.29, 1.04]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"exit4","tercile":"high","est":3.08980364796171,"lo":-3.1687686760277405,"hi":9.34837597195118,"p":0.3328568408237383,"n":1030,"txt":"3.09","ci":"[−3.17, 9.35]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"replaced4","tercile":"low","est":-6.383050732730899,"lo":-9.53215061585078,"hi":-3.23395084961101,"p":0.0007583272021691,"n":897,"txt":"−6.38","ci":"[−9.53, −3.23]","table":"Table S8"},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"replaced4","tercile":"middle","est":-0.15065703205646,"lo":-4.81731980422528,"hi":4.51600574011234,"p":0.9495809095450356,"n":856,"txt":"−.15","ci":"[−4.82, 4.52]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"replaced4","tercile":"high","est":-0.64586863350941,"lo":-5.30331945675695,"hi":4.01158218973811,"p":0.7850090954911245,"n":1030,"txt":"−.65","ci":"[−5.30, 4.01]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"cleared4","tercile":"low","est":-0.28090838325379003,"lo":-6.95080843267898,"hi":6.38899166617139,"p":0.9342521342506196,"n":897,"txt":"−.28","ci":"[−6.95, 6.39]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"cleared4","tercile":"middle","est":-5.47777808777166,"lo":-11.53640932856191,"hi":0.58085315301857,"p":0.0795030099868764,"n":856,"txt":"−5.48","ci":"[−11.54, .58]","table":null},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"cleared4","tercile":"high","est":3.73567228147114,"lo":-2.33677561927262,"hi":9.80812018221491,"p":0.2303380156625153,"n":1030,"txt":"3.74","ci":"[−2.34, 9.81]","table":null}],"wald":[{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"exit4","stat":12.65993994068911,"p":0.0130626462745309,"n":13486,"txt":"χ²(4) = 12.66"},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"replaced4","stat":7.833511073697884,"p":0.0978708361990916,"n":13486,"txt":"χ²(4) = 7.83"},{"storm":"ian_2022","outcome":"cleared4","stat":9.416593783447112,"p":0.0514895615505471,"n":13486,"txt":"χ²(4) = 9.42"},{"storm":"michael_2018","outcome":"exit4","stat":13.108073059609824,"p":0.0107596261453979,"n":4092,"txt":"χ²(4) = 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It is an area measure, as tract income is, and attenuates any effect of personal wealth.","frame":"Site-built houses on their own lot severely damaged by Irma, Michael or Ian. Linear probability models, coefficient × 100 with the 95% interval, standard errors clustered by census tract. Exit: the house left the stock, replaced by a new structure or cleared, by t+4, the fourth roll after the storm.","not_supported":"Not supported: no estimate distinguishable from zero in the predicted direction, an estimate of the opposite sign, or a sign that changes across locations and storms.","contrast":"Thirds within county and storm; two-proportion contrasts with 95% intervals; the joint test is the Wald test of the four income × land interactions.","resources":"Tract measures from the American Community Survey, z-scored within storm and county. Threshold terms: the index, built before 1994, log just value and homestead. With 23 tracts, Irma’s intervals are approximate."}}